|
Introduction to Time Segment Analysis.
Time Segment Analysis (TSA) is an outgrowth of W.D.
Gann's concept of taking market cycle time lengths, or price numbers converted
to time lengths, and adding them to key dates of the past: highs, lows,
or big range days.
For some early pioneers in this technique such as Charles Plank,
it was natural that Gann or Fibonacci extensions should serve as time
projections just as they had for price projections. Thus 1.618 (or Gann 1.625),
1.50, or 1.382 time projections were used.
Several computer programs are in large part based upon this technique.
Ed Kasanjian's Nature's Pulse
has the capability to screen for time
time lengths, do multiple projections from each one, and plot them beneath
a price chart. Clusters of the projections, or "hits" are thought to be of
greater importance than solitary end points.
Robert Miner's Dynamic Trader
program includes the capability of doing individual time length projections
along with price projections and other technical tools. This excellent program
is heavily weighted toward Elliott Wave and Fibonacci projections.
One of the more exciting developments in TSA was the publication
in 1992 of Christoper Carolan's "The Spiral Calendar and its Effect on
Financial Markets and Human Events." (New Classics Library, PO Box 1618,
Gainesville, GA 30503, ISBN 0-932750-21-4.)
Carolan was a Pacific Coast Exchange options options floor trader during the
1987 crash. Anyone who knows what some options traders went through during
those harrowing days will understand why someone with Carolan's intellect
would seek a cause other than the "usual suspects" of news, politics, and
Federal Reserve policy.
Read the book! But basically Carolan discovered a numerical time series
based upon the square root of successive Fibonacci numbers multiplied by
the length of the lunar month. He was led to the lunar month by realizing
that the 1929 and 1987 crashes occured upon the same day of the Jewish lunar
calendar.
There are a number of numerical series in addition to Gann, Fibonacci, and Carolan's
Spiral calendar. It is a simple matter to create spreadsheets to add these
sequences to important past (or subtract from future!) dates to find clusters
of hits which target probable changes in trend.
There are still other TSA techniques, but the upshot of them all is an
improved ability to project times for markets to turn which in some ways
is superior to price projection.
Home
| 